000 AXNT20 KNHC 120550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N19W TO 18N26W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. GLOBAL POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND MID-LEVEL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A BROAD 600-700 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N19W WITH THE 700 MB TROUGH ALIGNED TO THE NW ALONG THE AXIS OF THE WAVE. NO SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N54W TO 12N58W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN 52W-59W WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 53W-58W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 54W-59W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N68W TO 16N69W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW TO MID-LEVEL TROUGHING SOUTH OF A WESTERN ATLC RIDGE...THE WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 63W-73W... INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 08N13W 07N41W 12N56W RESUMING OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR 10N73W AND WESTWARD ALONG 09N INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE W AFRICA COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 05N-15N BETWEEN 09W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE CONTINUE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF N OF 25N FOCUSED NEAR A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N87W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA NEAR 34N84W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS REMAINING MOSTLY E OF 90W. FARTHER WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N97W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE SE TEXAS COAST TO SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 93W. ELSEWHERE...OVER THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 21N BETWEEN 90W-97W. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO 19N76W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WESTWARD PROPAGATING TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W N OF 16N IS PROVIDING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...IMPACTING MANY OF THE GREATER ANTILLES ISLANDS TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 17N81W TO 14N82W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADES OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED SW OF A LINE FROM 17N84W TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W. CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 09N IS PROVIDING FOR STRONGER CONVECTION S OF 11N INCLUDING PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. FARTHER EAST...WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 65W DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED OVER THE SE CONUS CENTERED NEAR 34N84W. THIS IS SUPPORTING A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N67W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOCATED SW OF THE HIGH...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 69W S OF 21N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND SE BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE NEARBY ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THESE FEATURES. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N58W TO 22N64W TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA... PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANALYZED AS A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N54W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N THROUGH THE LOW TO 30N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 47W-56W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 32N26W TO 21N33W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN