000 AXNT20 KNHC 112344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE LAST ADVISORY WAS WRITTEN FOR T.D. FIVE AT 11/2100 UTC. T.D. FIVE WAS CENTERED NEAR 28.3N 87.6W AT 2100 UTC OR ABOUT 150 NM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA ABOUT 90 NM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUST TO 35 KT. SATELLITE...BUOY...AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION LACKS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER AND CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF T.D. FIVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE BY EARLY THU. THIS LOW COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS TO PORTIONS OF THE N GULF COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY THU. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROAD AREA N OF 24N E OF 90W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA AND THE N GULF COAST. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N25W TO 10N19W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE WINDS AND A BROAD MID LEVEL CURVATURE OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR AND THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/ CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N54W TO 10N57W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 17N54W TO 14N58W. THIS WAVE HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N66W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 15N69W MOVING NW 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE MAXIMUM THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AN A LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 65W-70W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N11W 7N19W 11N41W 8N50W 11N60W AND ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 12N72W 11N80W OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 12N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-8N E OF 45W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE CONTINUE TO GENERATING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE E GULF...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST AND INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W TO THE SW LOUISIANA COAST NEAR LAKE CHARLES GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA ANS E TEXAS W OF 90W. FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 94W-97W. A SEABREEZE SQUALL LINE IS MOVING W ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SE GULF FROM 22N88W TO OVER GUATEMALA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE BAHAMAS CROSSES CUBA NEAR 21N76W TO 19N76W WITH A SMALLER...WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 17N79W TO 13N80W AND NO WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. HOWEVER...THE CARIBBEAN IS RATHER ACTIVE THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE GREATER ANTILLES W OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF MARTINIQUE. THIS LEAVES A SWATH OF RATHER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITHIN 120/150 NM FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 15N75W TO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR THE N BORDER OF BELIZE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 32N81W THROUGH A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N68W TO 23N60W WHICH IS JUST N OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N74W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 18N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SW OF A LINE FROM 23N70W TO 26N79W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE E CONUS EXTENDS TO OVER THE W ATLC WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE E EXTENDING THROUGH 32N58W TO 22N66W. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANALYZED AS A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 25N55W WHICH IS ABOUT 740 NM NE OF THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LOW CHANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE N AND N-NE. A BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE E ATLC AND IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR 34N33W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW