000 AXNT20 KNHC 111804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS CENTERED NEAR 28.0N 87.0W AT 11/1800 UTC OR 175 NM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA OR ABOUT 150 NM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF ELEVATED VALUES IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N TO 31N BETWEEN 82W AND 94W. THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED NE OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE SW GULF...AND IS EXPECTED TO HELP TO TRACK THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOWARDS THE NW OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANALYZED AS A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N54W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10-15 KT AND IS FORECAST TO TURN N-NE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS TO THE EAST OF THE LOW FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 47W-53W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO TO THE SW FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 57N AND 60W. INCREASING WIND SHEAR FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SURROUNDING THE LOW...FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION AND AN IMPROVEMENT IN OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENCE COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N24W TO 10N17W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. MID LEVEL CLOUD ROTATION OVER THESE ISLANDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN VORTEX GENERATE BY THE WAVE...INDICATE ITS CURRENT LOCATION. ALSO...GLOBAL POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND MID-LEVEL MODEL FIELDS ALIGNED NEARLY ALONG THE AXIS OF THE WAVE. A SURGE OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE...STILL OVER WEST AFRICA...WHERE MOST OF THE CONVECTION RESIDES. THEREFORE NO SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 350 NM EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 17N52W TO 8N56W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 54W-57W. ANY DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ALONG 20N64W TO 15N68W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. USING LONG-TERM SATELLITE ANALYSIS...THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE RESIDUAL ENERGY THAT CONTINUED MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 25N54W SEVERAL DAYS AGO. WHILE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W....INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND IMPACT HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM WEST AFRICA OVER SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W...CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 7N22W 11N35W 15N52W THEN RESUMES NEAR 10N58W CONTINUING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS EAST OF 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE IMPACTING THE GULF WATERS N OF 24N E OF 93W. THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED NE OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE SW GULF...AND IS EXPECTED TO HELP TO TRACK THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOWARDS THE NW OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS COVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 75W ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA...ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 20N76W TO JAMAICA NEAR 18N77W. MOST OF THE CONVECTION PRODUCED BY THIS SYSTEM IS CONCENTRATED ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THEREFORE...NO CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHERN VICINITY OF THE AXIS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AREA. AN OVERALL DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ANALYZED FROM 24N74W CROSSING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA ALONG 21N76W PRODUCING MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED TROUGH/LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N76W. THE REST OF THE WESTERN ATLC WEST OF 60W IS INFLUENCED BY A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N68W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS TO NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE CENTRAL ATLC SPECIAL FEATURES LOW IS CENTERED SE OF THIS RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE N-NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N61W. ASIDE FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW...GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA