000 AXNT20 KNHC 111151 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS CENTERED NEAR 27.1N 85.8W AT 11/0900 UTC OR 185 NM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA OR ABOUT 245 NM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE SE GULF FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 82W-85W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO N OF 24N E OF 91W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANALYZED AS A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N53W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10-15 KT AND IS FORECAST TO TURN N-NE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N60W. A 11/0112 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED STRONGER WINDS LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS LOCATED EAST OF THE LOW FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 47W-53W. WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO IMPACT THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SURROUNDING THE LOW...FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION AND AN IMPROVEMENT IN OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENCE COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N21W TO 10N14W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. GLOBAL POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND MID-LEVEL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A BROAD 600-700 MB TROUGH ALIGNED NEARLY ALONG THE AXIS OF THE WAVE. NO SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N51W TO 07N55W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN 47W-56W WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 48W-55W. WHILE THE WAVE LACKS ANY DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 07N-16N BETWEEN 51W-57W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 21N63W TO 13N67W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. USING LONG-TERM SATELLITE ANALYSIS...THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE RESIDUAL ENERGY THAT CONTINUED MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 25N53W SEVERAL DAYS AGO. WHILE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 62W-68W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND IMPACT HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N16W 09N22W 14N42W 13N51W THEN RESUMES NEAR 09N56W AND ALONG 09N/10N TO SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF A LINE FROM 05N10W TO 14N37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IMPACTING THE GULF WATERS N OF 24N E OF 91W. T.D. FIVE IS LOCATED EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE SW GULF NEAR 23N93W AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THE SYSTEM NW OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. WEST OF 91W...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NE FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 28N108W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF FROM THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER TO ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 21N97W. RELATIVELY FAIR SKIES RESIDE W OF 90W...WITH LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 93W-97W. CARIBBEAN SEA... OVERALL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IMPACTS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W. THIS IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 22N72W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 15N77W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADES AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NEAR HISPANIOLA AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 68W-80W. FARTHER EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 68W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ALONG 09N TO NW VENEZUELA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 13N W OF 73W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC WEST OF 62W AND IS PROVIDING MOST OF THE W ATLC WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM T.D. FIVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS TO 79W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS... WESTERN CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. FARTHER SE...A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADES ANALYZED FROM 22N72W TO 15N77W EXTENDS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 68W-75W. A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N67W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N79W. THE CENTRAL ATLC SPECIAL FEATURES LOW IS CENTERED SE OF THIS RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE N-NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N60W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 31N32W THAT EXTENDS TROUGHING TO 15N OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WATERS. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW REFLECTS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 26N32W TO 35N31W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 29N-36N BETWEEN 28W-35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN