000 AXNT20 KNHC 110559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS CENTERED NEAR 26.3N 84.5W AT 11/0600 UTC OR 210 NM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA OR ABOUT 290 NM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MOVING NW AT 04 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE SE GULF FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 79W-90W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANALYZED AS A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N53W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10-15 KT AND IS FORECAST TO TURN N-NW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N60W. A 11/0112 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED STRONGER WINDS LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE EAST OF THE LOW FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 46W-53W. WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO IMPACT THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SURROUNDING THE LOW...FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION AND AN IMPROVEMENT IN OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENCE COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N18W TO 09N16W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. GLOBAL POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND MID-LEVEL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A BROAD 600-700 MB TROUGH ALIGNED FROM 11N14W TO 20N20W. NO SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N50W TO 07N51W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN 45W-55W WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 46W-54W. WHILE THE WAVE LACKS ANY DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 08N-16N BETWEEN 51W-58W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. USING LONG-TERM SATELLITE ANALYSIS...THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE RESIDUAL ENERGY THAT CONTINUED MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW NEAR 25N53W SEVERAL DAYS AGO. WHILE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 61W-68W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N18W 14N35W 15N50W 14N64W THEN RESUMES OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR 11N72W AND ALONG 11N TO NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 20W-30W... ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 28W-36W AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 38W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IMPACTING THE GULF WATERS E OF 91W FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE GULF COAST. T.D. FIVE IS LOCATED EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N90W AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NW OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. WEST OF 90W...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 28N108W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF FROM THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER TO ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 20N97W. RELATIVELY FAIR SKIES RESIDE W OF 90W...WITH LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. CARIBBEAN SEA... OVERALL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IMPACTS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 70W. THIS IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 15N76W TO 19N75W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADES AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 71W-79W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE IS ALSO ADVECTING SW FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES. FARTHER EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 68W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ALONG 11N TO NW VENEZUELA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 71W-80W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC WEST OF 65W AND IS PROVIDING MOST OF THE W ATLC WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM T.D. FIVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS TO 77W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NW BAHAMAS...WESTERN CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. FARTHER SE...A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADES ALONG 76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 67W-74W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N45W THROUGH BERMUDA THEN ALONG 31N TO THE COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR BRUNSWICK. THE CENTRAL ATLC SPECIAL FEATURES LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE N-NW DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N60W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 31N31W THAT EXTENDS TROUGHING TO 15N OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WATERS. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW REFLECTS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 28N32W TO 33N30W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 28N-35N BETWEEN 28W-35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN