000 AXNT20 KNHC 110000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE BROAD SURFACE LOW IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE AS OF 2330 UTC. T.D. FIVE IS CENTERED NEAR 26.0N 84.1W OR ABOUT 225 NM SSE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 325 NM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MOVING NW AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUST TO 40 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROAD AREA E OF 91W OVER THE FLORIDA...CUBA...AND THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANALYZED AS A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 24N52W WHICH IS ABOUT 700 NM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 23N48W TO 24N51W. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE N AND N-NE OVER THE ATLC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 20N16W ALONG 14N17W TO 9N15W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR IS BEING INTRODUCED INTO THE WAVE BETWEEN 12N-15N WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE MAXIMUM THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AN A WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N17W 13N35W 12N47W 10N51W 8N56W INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W THEN RESUMES 10N74W ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N84W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 21W-27W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 27W-34W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING ALONG 8N24W 7N37W TO 8N42W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SE CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE W GULF. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AREA OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE NE TO NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 22N95W TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 94W-97W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF SHOWER FREE THIS EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... NW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 14N W OF 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FROM THE LEEWARDS TO PUERTO RICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N E OF 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE TIP OF SW HAITI ALONG 16N75W TO 12N74W. THE BROAD UPPER FLOW COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA... JAMAICA...AND CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE IMMEDIATE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INLAND AND WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 75W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVER THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA S OF 27N W OF 76W TO OVER FLORIDA AND CUBA. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 28N61W THAT DIPS S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 67W-72W. THE SECOND FEATURE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION IS JUST TO THE E OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM 22N46W TO 28N51W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY DISCUSSED THERE. A THIRD LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N31W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE E ATLC INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N30W TO 26N33W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 30W-34W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESSES IN THE VICINITY OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH FURTHER EAST ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES...A 1024 MB HIGH 700 NM W OF THE AZORES AND A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N67W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW