000 AXNT20 KNHC 101803 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED 100 NM WEST OF THE COASTAL TOWN OF NAPLES FLORIDA NEAR 26N83W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 23N85W TO 22N87W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA ALONG 27N88W TO 29N93W. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BROAD AREA IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF...EAST OF 90W SOUTH OF 29N...INCLUDING MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND WESTERN CUBA...AND ALSO OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 4 KT TO 8 KT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANALYZED AS A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 24N52W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10-15 KT AND IS FORECAST TO TURN N-NW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THIS SYSTEM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE NE OF THE LOW FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 48W-52W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER AS THE LOW TRACKS N-NW...IT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED WIND SHEAR AND LIKELY THWART DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY SURROUNDED BY A FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION AND AN OVERALL IMPROVEMENT OF SATELLITE PRESENCE COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN AFRICA COAST FROM 19N17W TO 8N13W. SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS W AFRICA INDICATES SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION AND WEAK BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 16N45W TO 6N48W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A REGION OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS AS SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. SOME OF THE CONVECTION IN THIS AREA IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N63W TO 8N65W OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE RESIDUAL ENERGY THAT CONTINUED MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW NEAR 24N52W THAT FRACTURED NORTHWARD ON AUGUST 06. WHILE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS NORTH OF 12N...ALSO AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM WEST AFRICA OVER GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N15W...CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 10N21W 13N35W 10N47W 7N56W 12N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS EAST OF 32W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS 160 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 23. AND 36W...PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGHS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF....EAST OF 90W AND NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 21N92W 20N93W 18N94W WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER WESTERN CUBA WEST OF 82W...ASSOCIATED TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS COVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 14N WEST OF 74W ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND NRN COLOMBIA. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W TO SANTA MARTA COLOMBIA NEAR 11N77W. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA WITHIN 70 NM OFFSHORE BETWEEN 69W AND 72W. A RATHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W SOUTH OF 16N PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS NORTH OF 12N...ALSO AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC WATERS CENTERED NEAR 27N80W AND SUPPORTS A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND ALSO WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ADVECTING N-NE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE FAR W ATLC WATERS W OF 75W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 25N-29N WEST OF 76W. E-SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITHIN 150 NM OFFSHORE BETWEEN 65W AND 71W. ASIDE FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 30N31W. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW REFLECTS A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR 27N30W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N-31N ALONG 30W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 29W AND 32W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA