000 AXNT20 KNHC 101156 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANALYZED AS A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 23N51W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10-15 KT AND IS FORECAST TO TURN N-NW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N60W. EARLIER ASCAT PASSES INDICATED A STRONG WIND FIELD LOCATED WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE NE OF THE LOW FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 46W-52W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER AS THE LOW TRACKS N-NW...IT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED WIND SHEAR AND LIKELY THWART DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY SURROUNDED BY A FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION AND AN OVERALL IMPROVEMENT OF SATELLITE PRESENCE COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS ANALYZED OFF THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N82W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING W THEN NW ALONG 25N85W TO 26N88W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM KEY WEST FLORIDA INDICATES A LOW TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS WELL AS ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 79W-88W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTEND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 26N84W TO 29N87W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES W-NW NEAR 5-10 KT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA FROM 19N17W TO 07N13W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. GLOBAL POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND MID-LEVEL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A BROAD 600-700 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N14W WITH THIS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO NEAR 18N17W...INDICATIVE OF A NORTHERN VORTEX. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION SURROUNDS THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N-17N BETWEEN 12W-18W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 17N44W TO 06N47W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN 40W-52W WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 42W-50W. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS AS SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 47W-55W. TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 52W HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED FARTHER WEST DUE TO FURTHER ANALYSIS OF LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY... PROPAGATION OF POTENTIAL AND LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY FIELDS WITHIN GLOBAL MODELS...AND ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS AS NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 18N62W TO 10N63W OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE RESIDUAL ENERGY THAT CONTINUED MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW NEAR 23N51W THAT FRACTURED NORTHWARD ON AUGUST 06. WHILE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 59W-66W... INCLUDING MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N16W 13N34W 11N46W 08N56W 10N71W THEN ALONG 09N TO SOUTHERN COSTA RICA NEAR 09N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 22W-29W...FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 33W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC WATERS NEAR 27N80W AND SUPPORTS A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 25N82W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS W THEN NW FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N85W TO 26N88W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 79W-88W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS LINGER NORTH OF THIS AREA OVER THE NE GULF FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 84W-88W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO COVER THE CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN 88W-94W ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES...ONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND THE OTHER CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 25N105W. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA TO NORTHEAST MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. LIGHT WINDS TO 15 KT RESIDE W OF 95W. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 72W AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO NEAR 25N105W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CUBA AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURROUNDING CARIBBEAN SEA COASTAL WATERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 17N BETWEEN 72W-87W WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE SPREADING SW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A PORTION OF THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN COSTA RICA ALONG 09N TO NW VENEZUELA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 13N. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N70W TO NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO NEAR 10N72W. WHILE BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND 75W...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 65W-75W. WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD ON E-SE TRADES TO 15 KT. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 14N60W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC WATERS CENTERED NEAR 27N80W AND SUPPORTS A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N82W. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND ALSO WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ADVECTING N-NE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE W ATLC WATERS W OF 75W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 75W-81W...WITH STRONGER CONVECTION LOCATED CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER SE...E-SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 71W IS PROVIDING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND AREAS NORTHWARD TO 23N BETWEEN 60W-72W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ASIDE FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N48W THROUGH BERMUDA TO 25N75W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 30N30W THAT EXTENDS TROUGHING TO 17N OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WATERS. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW REFLECTS A WEAK 1014 MB SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR 27N29W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N-33N ALONG 30W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 28W-34W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN