000 AXNT20 KNHC 100557 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANALYZED AS A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 24N50W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10-15 KT AND IS FORECAST TO TURN NW AND N DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N60W. EARLIER ASCAT PASSES INDICATED A STRONG WIND FIELD LOCATED WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIMITED ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE NE OF THE LOW FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 45W-51W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR...HOWEVER AS THE LOW TRACKS NW...IT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED WIND SHEAR AND LIKELY THWART DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY SURROUNDED BY A FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION AND OVERALL IMPROVEMENT OF SATELLITE PRESENCE COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A BROAD SURFACE LOW IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS ANALYZED AS A 1010 MB LOW OFF THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N83W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING W THEN NW ALONG 25N86W TO 27N89W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM KEY WEST FLORIDA INDICATES A LOW TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS WELL AS ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 81W-85W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES W-NW NEAR 5-10 KT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA FROM 17N14W TO 08N13W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. GLOBAL POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND MID-LEVEL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A BROAD 600-700 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N14W WITH THIS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO NEAR 18N16W INDICATIVE OF A NORTHERN VORTEX. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION SURROUNDS THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N-17N BETWEEN 10W-18W WITH THE STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY LOCATED NEAR THIS NORTHERN VORTEX. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 15N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN 40W-49W. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE AND IS LIKELY MIXED WITH OTHER ITCZ DRIVEN CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. REMNANT ENERGY LEFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW LOCATED NEAR 24N50W...THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM AREA OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER COVERING THE AREA FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 40W-54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 51W-55W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N16W 09N21W 09N46W 14N61W 15N70W THEN TO NORTHERN COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 23W-29W... FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 34W-39W...AND FROM 06N-13N BETWEEN 44W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC WATERS NEAR 26N78W AND SUPPORTS A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 25N83W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS W THEN NW FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N86W TO 27N89W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 81W-85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS LINGER NORTH OF THIS AREA OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 86W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO COVER THE CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN 88W-95W ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES...ONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND THE OTHER CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 24N102W. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N96W. EASTERLY WINDS TO 15 KT RESIDE SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 72W AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N96W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CUBA AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURROUNDING CARIBBEAN SEA COASTAL WATERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 17N BETWEEN 72W-85W WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE SPREADING SW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A PORTION OF THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO 14N73W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N69W TO ARUBA AND INTO NORTHERN VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W. WHILE BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND 75W... WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 10N-21N BETWEEN 57W-72W WITH STRONGER CONVECTION CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE...AS WELL AS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N E OF 65W. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 15N60W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC WATERS CENTERED NEAR 26N78W AND SUPPORTS A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N83W. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND ALSO WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ADVECTING N-NE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE W ATLC WATERS W OF 75W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 75W-81W...WITH STRONGER CONVECTION LOCATED CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER SE...E-SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 70W IS PROVIDING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND AREAS NORTHWARD TO 23N BETWEEN 60W-72W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC... MOSTLY STABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERN ATLC SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER E OF 45W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 30N30W THAT EXTENDS TROUGHING TO 17N OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WATERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN