000
AXNT20 KNHC 100003
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANALYZED AS A 
1014 MB LOW NEAR 24N49W WHICH IS ABOUT 800 NM E-NE OF THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W-NW NEAR 8-13 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN 
NW AND N DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
NE OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 23N45W TO 27N49W. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE 
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT 
ORGANIZATION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION 
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD SURFACE LOW IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS ANALYZED AS A 
1011 MB LOW OFF THE W COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 26N83W WITH A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NW ALONG 27N89W TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 
29N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 120/150 NM 
OF LINE FROM W CUBA NEAR 23N88W ALONG 26N87W TO OVER SE 
LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W. A SECOND SEABREEZE SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS NE FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE W COAST OF THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA ENHANCING SIMILAR ACTIVITY INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM 
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST S OF 29N. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST 
TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES W-NW AT 4 TO 8 
KT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL 
OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER W AFRICA FROM 17N13W TO 7N12W MOVING W 5-10 
KT. WAVE REMAINS INLAND WITH ANY CONVECTION REMAINING INLAND 
OVER W AFRICA. WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OVER 
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS 
WITHIN AN AREA OF MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AN A WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION 
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N15W 9N23W 10N37W 8N45W 11N53W 
INTO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 14N61W TO 15N66W THEN RESUMES 10N75W 
ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 9N83W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-29W. LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-12N 
BETWEEN 43W-47W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE LOW/TROUGH IN THE SPECIAL 
FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING 
AN AXIS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO W CUBA. AN UPPER LOW IS JUST E OF 
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA CENTERED JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS COVERING 
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND RE-ENFORCING THE FLOW ALOFT. DRY 
CONTINENTAL AIR IS BEING ADVECTED S OVER THE NE GULF WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERRUNNING THE 
SEABREEZE SURFACE TROUGH. THE MOISTURE ALOFT IS SPREADING OVER 
THE W GULF GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 92W-97W KEEPING THE 
GULF VERY ACTIVE THIS EVENING. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS 
INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 22N84W TO NEAR 15N74W. AN 
UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN 
WITH A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE SW CARIBBEAN ANCHORED 
NEAR 14N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE 
ALONG 15N70W TO JUST INLAND OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W. 
DISSIPATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM 
THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH 
AFTERNOON HEATING ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INLAND OVER  HISPANIOLA.. 
JAMAICA...AND CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
MOVING S INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS DOTTING THE AREA N OF 15N W 
OF 72W. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT DIPS S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY N OF 
16N E OF 67W TO OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. 
THE ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY S 
OF 13N W OF 72W. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W COVERING THE W 
ATLC FROM 23N-32N W OF 72W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A 
SECOND UPPER LOW JUST TO THE E NEAR 27N60W COVERING THE AREA N 
OF 16N BETWEEN 54W-67W. THE WESTERN UPPER LOW IS GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BAHAMAS S OF 
26N W OF 74W TO OVER FLORIDA AND CUBA. THE EASTERN UPPER LOW IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY STABLE AIR AND NOT PRODUCING ANY 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE FIRST FEATURE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES 
SECTION IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM FROM 22N44W 
TO 32N49W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION THAT IS TO THE NE OF THE LOW 
CENTER. A THIRD LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 33N28W AND EXTENDS S ACROSS THE E ATLC INTO THE E 
TROPICAL ATLC AND AGAIN NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A 
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY 
OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH 850 NM ENE OF 
BERMUDA. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW