000 AXNT20 KNHC 091812 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N49W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 44W AND 48W. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN THE N AND NE SEMI-CIRCLE LEAVING THE CENTER OF ROTATION VERY WELL EXPOSED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA ALONG 12W FROM 6N TO 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS W AFRICA INDICATES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W FROM 6N TO 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS...WHILE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES TO THE WEST OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 40W-50W. SOME OF THE CONVECTION IN THIS AREA IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W FROM 7N TO 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN A REGION OF DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR. THEREFORE...NO CYCLONIC FLOW...NOR CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N16W 12N26W 9N37W 7N45W 10N55W 14N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS EAST OF 34W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 40W-50W...AND FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 55W-61W.. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD AND STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD INTO THE NE GULF SUPPORTS A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ANALYZED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NORTHEAST GULF. THE FIRST ONE IS ANALYZED FROM SARASOTA FLORIDA TO NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA ALONG 27N83W 28N86W 30N89W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE NORTH OF THIS TROUGH AXIS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...AS WELL AS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...DRIVING THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN A SW DIRECTION. THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 80 NM S OF THE FIRST ONE. A 1012 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS TROUGH NEAR 26N83W WITH BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND IT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER A BROAD AREA THAT INCLUDES MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS EAST OF 88W S OF 28N. THE CONVECTION IN THESE REGIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS COVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 75W ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND NRN COLOMBIA. THE NW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS W OF 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN FROM NW OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N67W TO SANTA CRUZ NEAR 12N70W. WHILE BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND 73W...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 58W-70W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN TO REMAIN UNDER DRY AIR AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WWD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NUMEROUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST OF 74W ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS WITHIN 20 NM ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD AND STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ABOUT 100 NM OFF THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD. ASIDE FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N48W AND A 1025 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N25W. ALSO...A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FURTHER HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THIS REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA