000 AXNT20 KNHC 091155 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON AUG 09 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N48W IS NOW LOCATED WELL NORTH OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 48W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE LOW FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN 43W-51W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED A STRONG WIND FIELD LOCATED WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THIS WIND FIELD LARGELY COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 44W-48W. CURRENTLY LOCATED BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA FROM 18N15W TO 08N12W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. EXAMINING LONG-TERM METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM...AND GLOBAL POTENTIAL VORTICITY MODEL FIELDS...IT APPEARS THE WAVE PASSED NIAMEY NIGER AROUND 08/0600 UTC. EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS W AFRICA ALSO INDICATES A VERY BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW- LEVELS BETWEEN 07W-16W...WHICH COINCIDES WITH GLOBAL MODEL POSITIONING OF A 600-700 MB LOW NEAR 11N13W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N36W TO 06N38W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS...WHILE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES TO THE WEST OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 35W-42W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN 38W-42W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM WELL SOUTH OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW NEAR 16N48W TO 07N49W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY HAS FRACTURED NORTHWARD INTO THE SURFACE LOW...A WEAK CYCLONIC LOW TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE ITCZ WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN 47W-52W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W S OF 22N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AS THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH MAXIMUM VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER S OF 24N BETWEEN 91W-98W. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 93W-98W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N15W 12N27W 09N37W 09N49W 14N66W THEN ALONG 10N BETWEEN 70W AND NW COSTA RICA NEAR 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 17W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 40W-50W...AND FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 52W-59W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NE VENEZUELA FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 60W-65W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD AND SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 30N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF NEAR SARASOTA THEN NW TO NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23N80W TO 30N89W NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION. THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDS FARTHER EAST INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS TO 72W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO ADVECT SW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF NEAR 22N96W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE NE OVER THE NW GULF IS SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE SW LOUISIANA GULF COAST NEAR CAMERON. E TO SE WINDS UP TO 15 KT RESIDE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER MUCH OF THE SW AND NW GULF THIS MORNING AS CAPTURED BY AN EARLIER 09/0336 UTC ASCAT PASS. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AS AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N96W. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER CUBA AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURROUNDING CARIBBEAN SEA COASTAL WATERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 17N BETWEEN 72W-85W WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SPREADING S-SW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. IN ADDITION...AREAS W OF 70W ARE EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH EASTERLY TRADES TO 20 KT THIS MORNING. A PORTION OF THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND ALONG 10N TO NW VENEZUELA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N65W TO BONAIRE NEAR 12N68W. WHILE BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND 70W...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 59W-69W WITH STRONGER CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NE VENEZUELA AND PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 13N. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD TO 32N77W THEN CONTINUES SE TO A WEAK AND ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 26N75W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 32N79W INTO THE LOW WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. SOUTH OF THE LOW OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE BAHAMAS...AND CUBA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 72W-81W. FARTHER EAST...THE REMNANTS OF COLIN ARE ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 37N65W TO 31N67W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE TROUGH FROM 25N-37N BETWEEN 65W-71W. ASIDE FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...MOSTLY STABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERN ATLC SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER E OF 42W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N28W THAT EXTENDS TROUGHING TO 18N OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WATERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN