000 AXNT20 KNHC 081752 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN AUG 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... DUE TO LACK OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...COLIN WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 1200 UTC. IT'S POSITION AS OF 1800 UTC IS NEAR 32.4N 65.6W MOVING N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION AT 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1015 MB. THIS LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME RATHER ELONGATED NORTH TO SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED WEAK MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS N OF 26N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND COLIN DOES NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IF THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO ELONGATE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT COLIN WILL BECOME A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH A CENTER NEAR 23N44W HAS CUT OFF FROM A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 45W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 42W-45W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N31W TO 8N34W MOVING W 10-15 KT. MID TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY CONSTRAINED TO THE ITCZ REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS SW OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W. SOME OF THE CONVECTION IN THIS AREA IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 45W S OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH HIGH VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. WEAK SURFACE/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED WINDS. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 94W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NW GULF AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 93W S OF 21N. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM W AFRICA NEAR GUINEA-BISSAU AT 12N15W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 9N23W 10N32W 12N43W 10N55W 11N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 22W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IF WITHIN 160 NM S OF THE ITCZ W OF 46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF...FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO NEAR CAMERON LOUISIANA ALONG 27N82W 28N87W 29N93W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD AND STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER A BROAD AREA THAT INCLUDES THE NE GULF...N OF 27N E OF 87W...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS N OF 24N. THE CONVECTION IN THESE REGIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FURTHERMORE...COMPUTER MODELS SOMEWHAT AGREE WITH DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM INTO A MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 94W S OF 22N. THIS WAVE IS DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF AND SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 93W S OF 21N. DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N WEST OF 75W ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND NRN COLOMBIA ALONG 10N. THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EXTREMELY DRY AIR EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W FROM 11N TO 15N ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN TO REMAIN UNDER DRY AIR AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WWD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NUMEROUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE ERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE NRN BAHAMAS FROM 24N TO 30N WEST OF 76W ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS PUSHED SWD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 31N77W 29N78W 27N80W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD AND STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ABOUT 100 NM OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. TO THE E...TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN IS STILL PRODUCING MODERATE CONVECTION. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 55W FROM 13N TO 16N SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE NEAR THE TROUGH. A SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N44W PRODUCING MODERATE CONVECTION. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N50W. ALSO...A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FURTHER HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THIS REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA