000 AXNT20 KNHC 081202 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN AUG 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS CENTERED NEAR 31.2N 65.6W OR ABOUT 160 NM SSW OF BERMUDA AT 08/1200 UTC...MOVING N AT 3 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. COLIN REMAINS WEAK AND DISORGANIZED WITH THE CENTER NW OF THE CONVECTION. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO THE ERN SIDE OF COLIN WHILE LOWER VALUES ARE TO THE W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAS FORMED SE OF THE CENTER FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 64W-66W. COLIN LIES UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS TO EACH SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND COLIN DOES NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR MORE THAN MODEST STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALLOWING FOR SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING UNTIL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 27N41W TO 8N42W MOVING WNW NEAR 10 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 22N. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE FROM THE ITCZ TO 27N BETWEEN 37W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 23N-24N BETWEEN 42W-44W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS TO THE SW OF THE WAVE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 43W-49W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N31W TO 8N32W MOVING W 10-15 KT. MID TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY CONSTRAINED TO THE ITCZ REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-13N BETWEEN 32W-34W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N91W TO 13N92W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CONFIRMED BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NW GULF AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 93W-95W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 90W-91W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF MEXICO FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 92W-96W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM W AFRICA NEAR GUINEA AT 11N14W CONTINUING ALONG 9N22W 10N34W 13N42W 10N53W 10N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 14W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 20W-25W...FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 35W-39W...AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 54W-59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 25N84W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR ACROSS THE NW GULF AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SRN TEXAS NEAR 27N96W. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW GULF AND SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 93W-95W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS PUSHED SWD INTO THE AREA NOW LYING ACROSS NRN FLORIDA ALONG 31N81W 30N85W 31N89W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS S OF THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N E OF 93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 82W-84W NEAR THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA. MORE ACTIVITY IS E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. EXPECT WEAK RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DIPS SWD BRINGING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE NW CARIBBEAN LEAVING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER...SOME MODERATE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF CUBA...AS WELL AS ACROSS HAITI. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FAR W ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 74W-87W ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA ALONG 11N. THIS ACTIVITY IS IMPACTING NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND NRN COLOMBIA. THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EXTREMELY DRY AIR EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH MOSTLY ELY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NOW LIES ALONG 16N63W TO 12N63W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 59W-65W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN TO REMAIN UNDER DRY AIR AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WWD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE ERN COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 24N W OF 76W ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS PUSHED SWD ACROSS NRN FLORIDA SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE ERN CONUS AND NW ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N73W. HOWEVER...IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS KEEPING SURFACE CONDITIONS FAIR BETWEEN 67W-76W AROUND A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 29N71W. TO THE E...TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS STILL PRODUCING DISTURBED WEATHER. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 16N54W TO 13N52W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 50W-55W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE NEAR THE TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 36N49W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER COLIN BETWEEN 61W-69W SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE W...AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 23N55W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS NEAR 23N37W AND 23N23W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON