000 AXNT20 KNHC 080600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN AUG 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS CENTERED NEAR 29.8N 65.6W OR ABOUT 160 NM SSW OF BERMUDA AT 08/0600 UTC...MOVING NNE AT 3 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. COLIN REMAINS WEAK AND DISORGANIZED. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO THE ERN SIDE OF COLIN WHILE LOWER VALUES ARE TO THE W. THIS CORRELATES TO THE LOCATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH REMAINS TO THE SE OF THE CENTER. ONLY A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 64W-66W. COLIN LIES UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS TO EACH SIDE OF THE RIDGE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 24N41W TO 12N41W MOVING WNW NEAR 10 KT. AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM AROUND 0000 UTC INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1011 MB LOW CENTER ALONG THE AXIS AT 20N. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE FROM THE ITCZ TO 27N BETWEEN 35W-45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 40W-42W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS TO THE SW OF THE WAVE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 42W-48W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N31W TO 6N29W MOVING W 10-15 KT. MID TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY CONSTRAINED TO THE ITCZ REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 31W-35W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 22N89W TO 10N90W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WRN GULF AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A HUGE BURST OF CONVECTION THAT FLARED UP NEAR THE WAVE SEVERAL HOURS AGO HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED LEAVING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 89W-93W. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION HAS FORMED W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER MEXICO FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 92W-95W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM W AFRICA NEAR GUINEA BISSAU AT 12N17W CONTINUING ALONG 12N30W 15N40W 11N51W 13N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 13W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 26N85W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW PORTIONS OF THE BASIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SRN TEXAS NEAR 26N98W. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW GULF AND SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN GEORGIA...ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING DOWN ACROSS THE ERN CONUS IS DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS THE NE GULF...AND SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 28N E OF 89W. EXPECT WEAK RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE CONUS PUSHES SWD ACROSS N FLORIDA LIKELY CAUSING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE NW CARIBBEAN LEAVING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER...SOME MODERATE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF CUBA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 78W-81W...AS WELL AS ACROSS HAITI. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FAR W ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 74W-87W ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA ALONG 9N. THIS ACTIVITY IS IMPACTING COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND NRN COLOMBIA. THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EXTREMELY DRY AIR EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH MOSTLY ELY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NOW LIES ALONG 15N61W TO 9N62W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 60W-65W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN TO REMAIN UNDER DRY AIR AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WWD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE ERN COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 25N W OF 76W ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE CONUS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE ERN CONUS AND NW ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N73W. HOWEVER...IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS KEEPING SURFACE CONDITIONS FAIR BETWEEN 66W-76W. TO THE E...TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS STILL PRODUCING DISTURBED WEATHER. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1024 MB HIGHS NEAR 34N49W AND 32N36W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER COLIN BETWEEN 61W-69W SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE W...AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 23N55W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS NEAR 23N37W AND 23N23W. 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