000 AXNT20 KNHC 072358 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT AUG 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS CENTERED NEAR 29.4N 65.7W OR ABOUT 178 NM SSW OF BERMUDA AT 07/2100 UTC...MOVING NNE AT 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. COLIN IS DISORGANIZED AND IS DEFINED BY A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE CONVECTION LOCATED SE OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 63W-66W. A RELATIVELY SHARP RIDGE ALOFT IS IN THE AREA SURROUNDING COLIN WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 40W FROM 12N TO 24N AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 20N40W. THE WAVE IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE E ATLANTIC. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH VALUES STRETCHING FROM THE ITCZ NORTHWARD TO 27N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 38W-42W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE HIGH FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 29W FROM 6N-15N AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 30W-33W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 89W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EASILY IDENTIFIABLE ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH AN ENHANCED INVERTED V SIGNATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 87W-92W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N16W 10N24W 15N40W 11N48W 12N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 13W-22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 41W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N85W. A VERY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING ONLY 5-10 KT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF. A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 32N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF...N FLORIDA...AND S GEORGIA FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 80W-87W. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER INLAND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 80W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 26N96W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER N FLORIDA ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF...AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAJOR FEATURE OVER THE AREA IS A TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. THE ITCZ ALSO TRAVERSES N COLOMBIA ...PANAMA ...AND COSTA RICA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 76W-85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 76W-82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. MORE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 59W-64W. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH 20 KT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA. AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N86W. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 76W-79W. TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS FURTHER E MOVING NNE. SEE ABOVE. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N50W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. SAHARAN DUST IS OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 21N...E OF 60W TO W AFRICA...EXCLUDING NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N73W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR OVER TROPICAL STORM COLIN. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N66W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N50W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N24W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA