000 AXNT20 KNHC 071140 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT AUG 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS CENTERED NEAR 29.3N 66.5W OR ABOUT 200 NM SSW OF BERMUDA AT 07/1200 UTC...MOVING N AT 3 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM ALSO REMAINS SHEARED KEEPING CONVECTION TO THE SE OF THE CENTER LOCATION. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 64W-67W WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 62W-64W. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 22N38W TO 10N42W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1013 MB LOW CENTER ALONG THE AXIS AT 17N38W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE FROM THE ITCZ TO 27N BETWEEN 30W-41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 38W-41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SRN EXTENT OF THE WAVE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 40W-43W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM S OF CUBA NEAR 20N84W ACROSS CENTRAL HONDURAS/CENTRAL NICARAGUA TO NEAR 11N86W MOVING W AT 10 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CONFIRMED BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS N OF HONDURAS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 84W-86W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY OVER NICARAGUA AND SW HONDURAS HAS NOW MOVED MOSTLY OFFSHORE INTO THE E PACIFIC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM W AFRICA NEAR GUINEA AT 11N14W CONTINUING ALONG 10N28W 14N36W 8N50W 7N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 15W-19W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27W FROM 9N-14N SUPPORTING NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 27W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 47W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 27N86W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR ACROSS THE BASIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE WRN GULF NEAR 25N94W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SRN TIP OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND INLAND MEXICO FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 94W-96W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER ERN TEXAS HAS AN AXIS EXTENDING ESE ACROSS THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND OFF THE WRN COAST OF FLORIDA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE LIES ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN REMAINING THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE AXIS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 84W-86W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS WRN CUBA AND E OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. A PORTION OF THE E PACIFIC ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS COSTA RICA CONTINUING ALONG 10N INTO NRN COLOMBIA. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE AXIS IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER NRN COLOMBIA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 71W-78W. ALOFT...MAINLY ELY FLOW ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINTAINING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. SEVERAL STATIONS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN ARE REPORTING THE PRESENCE OF DUST. UPPER LEVEL RIDING COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WWD WITH FAIR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 28N73W IS MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR WRN ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE PUSHED SWD AND ARE NOW OFF THE NRN COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 29N BETWEEN 77W-81W. TO THE E...TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH COVERING THE FAR W ATLC AND A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE FARTHER E ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGHS NEAR 30N50W AND 33N33W WHICH ARE MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON COLIN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 59W FROM 13N-16N ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE SURFACE TROUGH. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS THE FAR W ATLC TO THE W OF COLIN WITH UPPER RIDGING TO THE S AND IMMEDIATE E OF COLIN. FARTHER E...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 21N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC CENTERED N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 24N25W. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ALSO COVERS THE FAR E ATLC E OF 30W ACCOMPANIED BY AFRICAN DUST FURTHER MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON