000 AXNT20 KNHC 062354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI AUG 06 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS CENTERED NEAR 28.7N 66.6W OR ABOUT 280 NM SSW OF BERMUDA AT 07/0000 UTC...MOVING NORTH 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF HIGH VALUES OF MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LAST VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOWED COLIN GENERATING MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL SWIRLS AROUND THE MAIN CENTER OF CIRCULATION EXPOSED. DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS OF COLIN HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE MAIN CENTER OF CIRCULATION WITH NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 61W AND 66W. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 20N34W 14N37W 7N41W...MOVING WESTWARD 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH HIGH VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. BROAD SURFACE/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 43W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT CURRENTLY WELL ORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WEST OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...FROM 20N82W TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER...PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 80W NORTH OF 13N...INCLUDING INLAND REGIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN A DAY OR SO. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W...WESTWARD ALONG 10N26W 14N35W 10N43W 7N50W 6N57W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W AND 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 23N92W COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. HOWEVER...DRY AIR EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE MID/UPPER LOW IS KEEPING THIS SYSTEM WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...ALLOWING ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE THE BASIN. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING WITH THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A WEAK SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N90W. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAJOR FEATURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS A TROPICAL WAVE WEST OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...FROM 20N82W TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WEST OF 80W NORTH OF 13N. FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING THIS WAVE...SEE TROPICAL WAVES ABOVE. THE ITCZ ALSO TRAVERSES N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND SAHARAN DUST ALOFT IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST OF 69W...SUPPORTED BY A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N76W. TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...TROPICAL STORM COLIN CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 59W AND 67W. FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT COLIN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1022 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 30N51W AND 32N35W RESPECTIVELY. ALSO...AN AMPLE 1025 MB HIGH IS WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 45N21W...WITH A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FURTHER HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THIS REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA