000 AXNT20 KNHC 060016 AAA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 815 PM EDT THU AUG 05 2010 ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT TROPICAL STORM COLIN HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION BELOW. TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COLIN HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...MAKING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AGAIN...AND THEREFORE THIS SYSTEM IS BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITH A LOW CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 66.3W. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF COLIN HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 62W AND 66W. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF HIGH VALUES OF MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 20N33W 15N34W 8N35W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH HIGH VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 16N BETWEEN 28W AND 37W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM SOUTH OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N77W TO NORTH OF PANAMA NEAR 11N81W. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W...WESTWARD ALONG 14N25W 17N30W 10N40W 8N50W 10N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS EAST OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 22N89W COVERS MOST OF THE GULF ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE THE BASIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE BASIN N OF 25N E OF 85W. A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES SW MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR 29N92W TO 28N93W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHING 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ENHANCING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OBSERVED FROM SOUTH OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N77W TO NORTH OF PANAMA NEAR 11N81W PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING THIS WAVE...SEE TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSION ABOVE. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 26N76W. DRY AIR EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS KEEPING THIS SYSTEM WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COLIN HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...MAKING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AGAIN...AND THEREFORE THIS SYSTEM IS BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF HIGH VALUES OF MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT COLIN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N51W AND AN AMPLE 1026 MB HIGH WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 43N24W. ALSO...A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...FURTHER HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THIS REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA