000 AXNT20 KNHC 050538 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU AUG 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL WAVE...REMNANTS OF COLIN...IS ALONG 27N65W TO A WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 19N61W MOVING W-NW OR NW AT 17 TO 21 KT. AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 58W-64W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 59W-63W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IT LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL...MEDIUM CHANCE...TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS LATER TODAY OR ON FRIDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY IF NECESSARY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS ALONG 26W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS TO THE SW OF AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AND WAS DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N16W 13N21W 10N33W 7N48W 11N59W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20.5W-22.5W AND WITHIN 180/200 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 31W-41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 8N-11N...WITHIN 120/150 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-23W...AND WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 41W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM BOTH SIDES OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 49W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER N MISSISSIPPI CONTINUES TO COVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W COVERING THE SE GULF S OF 25N FROM 83W-90W. NE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE N GULF COUPLED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N E OF 93W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA TO MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND OVER LOUISIANA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA WITH A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 27N90W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE S GULF FROM 21N-25N E OF 94W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 81W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N W OF 84W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED JUST S OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N70W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 75W-86W AS WELL AS OVER HAITI AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE SE CARIBBEAN COULD HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE AREA DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS ARE CENTERED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 29N66W AND 27N73W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 60-64W AND FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 73W-75W RESPECTFULLY. THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC TO 23N BETWEEN 65-78W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE SE OF THE UPPER LOWS EXTENDING FROM NEAR 21N61W TO 31N55W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY INT HE SPECIAL FEATURES. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE MOST OF THE ATLC BASIN N OF 20N W OF 55W AND N OF 26N BETWEEN 55W-75W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES AND A 1024 MB HIGH 850 NM ENE OF BERMUDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC ARE UNDER RATHER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND THUS IS MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW