000 AXNT20 KNHC 050009 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N22W...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 9N32W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W AND 40W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA PROBABLY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. A NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS THE REMNANT SYSTEM OF COLIN FROM YESTERDAY 03/2100 UTC. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 59W AND 67W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE WATERS FROM 17N IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 24N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND TO 32N BETWEEN 53W AND 70W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN SOME AREAS OF THIS CLOUDINESS. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N ON TOP OF THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 16N17W TO 15N22 10N34W 7N50W... TOWARD TOBAGO. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W AND 46W...AND FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 48W AND 61W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N75W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS WEAKENING COMPARATIVELY AND HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS MEXICO NEAR 24N102W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 28N83W. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS REMAIN FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 84W AND 92W. COMPARATIVELY MORE SHOWERS WERE IN THIS AREA SIX HOURS AGO. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE WITH TIME. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 97W...IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND ELSEWHERE BETWEEN GUATEMALA AND 97W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS NEAR 15N96W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO STATES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W...AROUND THE 23N86W SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER CUBA TO THE WEST OF 76W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 84W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 79W AND 89W...INCLUDING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA...NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR. SHOWERS ARE IN NORTHERN HAITI AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH. IT IS IMPORTANT FOR THE RESIDENTS OF THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO MONITOR THE POSSIBLE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF COLIN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE/REDEVELOPED LOW CENTER IF ANY OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS NEAR THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 70W... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 65W FROM BERMUDA AT LEAST TO 20N. THE REMNANT FEATURE OF COLIN IS MOVING TOWARD AND SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AREA OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL EXTENDS FROM A 37N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 31N41W TO 25N43W 15N45W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH THIS TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NAR/MT