000 AXNT20 KNHC 041749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 13N28W 12N27W 10N 30W MOVING W AT 8-14 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF MOISTURE MAXIMUM AND ITCZ JUST SOUTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 25W AND 32W. TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS ABOUT 125 NM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER...PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W. THE REMNANTS OF COLIN WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE REGENERATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THEY MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KT. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W S OF 16N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W...WESTWARD ALONG 10N30W 7N40W 6N50W 10N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM OF THE AXIS EAST OF 50W AND IN PATCHES WEST OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF SUPPRESSING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE SE CORNER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 26N81W TO 24N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IS DEPICTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 85W FROM 25N TO 29N ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W. FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED JUST W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...COVERING THE AREA N OF 14N W OF 77W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA TO THE NE/NW TIP OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE LATER TODAY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AS STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF T.S. COLIN. LOOK FOR SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE SE CORNER OF THE GULF INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 25N TO 30N PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 78W FROM 24N TO 30N. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N65W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. REMNANT CONVECTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN IS NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF HIGH VALUES OF MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KT. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N50W AND A AMPLE 1030 MB HIGH WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 43N30W. ALSO...A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THIS REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA/NANCOO