000 AXNT20 KNHC 040005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AS OF 0000 UTC...TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 375 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER...PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N TO 24N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. THE REMNANTS OF COLIN WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE REGENERATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THEY MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 22W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 8-14 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF MOISTURE MAXIMUM JUST COMING OUT OF WEST AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 21W AND 30W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA IS ALSO RELATED TO THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W S OF 16N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTION OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO ALONG 95W S OF 19N MOVING WNW AT 5-10 KT. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ELEVATED VALUES OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC N OF 11N E OF 100W. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MADRE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W...WESTWARD ALONG 10N27W 8N40W 9N50W 11N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W AND 43W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE MOVES WESTWARD EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 22N...NOTED AS STRONG SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS AIRMASS IS KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY FAIR ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER...THE BACK END OF THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND. HOWEVER, THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA S OF 28N TO 40 NM OFFSHORE. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE SE CONUS...ENHANCING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES MOVING WSW INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI TO 45 NM OFFSHORE. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS MOVING WITHIN THE OUTER REGION OF BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION AROUND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR WESTERN TENNESSEE AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DRY AIRMASS ALOFT WILL PREDOMINATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... COMPUTER MODEL DATA DEPICTS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ELEVATED VALUES OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND YUCATAN PENINSULA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 140 NM OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE FAR SW BASIN S OF 11N W OF 73W DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ IN THIS REGION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTION OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH A FEW AREAS OF WEAK SCATTERED CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LONGWAVE EXTENDING WITHIN 200 NM ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALONG THE EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N70W 27N74W 25N78W PRODUCING SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NORTH OF 23N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 24N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL STORM COLIN. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N50W AND A AMPLE 1031 MB HIGH WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 43N30W. ALSO...A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THIS REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA