000 AXNT20 KNHC 031804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN AT 03/1500 UTC IS NEAR 14.2N 49.5W...MOVING WESTWARD 21 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 15N51W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SIX HOURS AGO WERE FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA HAVE WARMED AND THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. RESIDENTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF COLIN. THE CENTER OF COLIN SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE ANALYSIS...ALONG 17N21W 13N22W...SOUTHWARD ALONG 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA ALSO IS RELATED JUST TO THE ITCZ. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N70W TO 13N69W...AND SOUTHWARD ALONG 69W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. THE WAVE IS IN THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ABOUT 200 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE BASE REACHES THE SOUTHERN MONA PASSAGE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/1200 UTC FOR PORT OF SPAIN IN TRINIDAD WAS 1.89 INCHES. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ACROSS MEXICO NEAR ITS BORDER WITH GUATEMALA... BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA. MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS GO FROM 18N OVER LAND TO 20N IN THE WATER BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/1200 UTC FOR MERIDA MEXICO WAS 1.33 INCHES. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W TO 7N33W 7N43W 12N59W... TO JUST NORTH OF TRINIDAD NEAR 11N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 8N33W...FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W..AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 48W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W...UPPER LEVEL LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. A TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE PERIPHERY AND JUST OUTSIDE THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW... FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N77W NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...TO A WEAK CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N91W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N71W 27N75W...FROM THE SOUTHERN END OF A STATIONARY FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 27N75W 25N79W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO 24N86W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM MISSISSIPPI TO ALL OF THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS...IN AN AREA OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS AS ONLY THE 1016 MB ISOBAR COVERS THE AREA FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NORTHWESTWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 83W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA/BELIZE/NORTHEASTERN GUATEMALA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 25N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 17N69W JUST OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN MONA PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE IN NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W... BEING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS AWAY FROM THE 69W/70W TROPICAL WAVE...UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 70W... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 25N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 17N69W JUST OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN MONA PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W ARE IN THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ABOUT 400 NM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 27N22W TO 21N25W TO 15N34W TO 14N40W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH THIS TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT