000 AXNT20 KNHC 031102 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AT 03/0900 UTC. TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS CENTERED NEAR 14.0N 47.2W OR ABOUT 820 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AT 03/0900 UTC MOVING W-NW AT 20 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 46W-51W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT WAS NW OF NOW TROPICAL STORM COLIN HAS BEEN ABSORBED. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS FROM 20N61W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 9N65W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE WAS OBSERVED IN THE LOW CLOUDS ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 63W-69W INCLUDING BONAIRE AND CURACAO ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM SAINT LUCIA TO JUST E OF PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS NOW JUST INLAND OVER THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N87W JUST OFF SHORE OF BELIZE TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS TO EL SALVADOR NEAR 13N88W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE AND JUST TO THE W OF A MID LEVEL LOW THAT IS CENTERED INLAND OVER HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 15N16W 12N24W 8N30W 9N43W 9N54W 11N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 20W AND THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN23W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 29W-38W AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 53W-59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXTENDING AN AXIS S INTO THE GULF OVER SE LOUISIANA TO S MEXICO AND THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 91W WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. THIS INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 96W/97W BETWEEN 22N-25N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 94W-97W. STRONG NE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NE GULF IS ENHANCING ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND TEXAS. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF FROM EAST TO WEST AND ISOLATED LOW CLOUDS DOMINATING THE GULF THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N W OF 82W WITH A SMALL UPPER LOW OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 80W-85W. A MID LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED INLAND OVER HONDURAS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 83W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 17N85W OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA TO 12N86W. THIS IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 18N W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N FROM COLOMBIA TO OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE GREAT ANTILLES FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 69W-74W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 77W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE EXTENDING THROUGH 32N72W TO 25N75W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING THE REGION FROM A STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR 32N70W TO 28N75W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND CONTINUING WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 27N74W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W. THE LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N63W AND DIPS S OVER A PORTION OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 62W-66W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN N OF 20N E OF 65W ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES AND RATHER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THIS IS MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW