000 AXNT20 KNHC 030004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 2100Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS CENTERED NEAR 13.0N 42.5W OR LOCATED ABOUT 1270 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WNW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW TO MID CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED WINDS. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOCATED NORTHWEST OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ALONG 23N48W 18N46W 14N43W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON MODERATE VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ALSO...ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 24W AND 51W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST WEST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 63W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W... INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SOUTH OF MARTINIQUE AND INLAND PORTION OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 89W S OF 22N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS IN A REGION OF MODERATE VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF 92W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR 17N16W...WESTWARD ALONG 11N22W 7N30W 8N40W. THEN...THE ITCZ RE-APPERAS ALONG 10N44W 9N51W TO 11N58W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W AND 40W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OFF THE COASTAL WATERS OF FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LONGWAVE EXTENDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND INTO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE CONTINUES TO EXPAND WSW WITHIN THE OUTER REGION OF CYCLONIC ROTATION AROUND A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR SW MISSOURI AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 25N TO 29N...AS WELL AS THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN GULF ALONG 30N91W 26N93W 24N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS SUPPORTED BY THE SAME UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MENTIONED EARLIER. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THIS REGION AND THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF 92W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A VIGOROUS SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ELEVATED VALUES OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION S OF 18N W OF 78W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS COVERING MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND FAR EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC. A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST WEST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 63W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION SOUTH OF 15N EAST OF 65W...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SOUTH OF MARTINIQUE AND INLAND PORTION OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH A FEW AREAS OF WEAK SCATTERED CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LONGWAVE EXTENDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FLOW NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 32N70W 29N74W 28N78W PRODUCING SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NORTH OF 23N...AND 80 NM WEST OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 24W AND 51W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 43N30W. ALSO...A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THIS REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA