000 AXNT20 KNHC 021752 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS CENTERED NEAR 12.6N 41.1W OR ABOUT 1365 MI...2200 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AT 1500 UTC MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 39W-43W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ALONG 43W FROM 15N-22N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY NOTED. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 60W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS ALSO DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 59W-62W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER N FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 60W-63W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 22N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 80W-86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER W CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 82W-84W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO ALONG 94W S OF 22N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE LIES JUST E OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 22N96W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 9N30W 11N40W 10N50W 11N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 52W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE TEXAS NEAR 29N95W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DISSIPATED. FURTHER N...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 84W-89W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N96W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS S OF HISPANIOLA. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 67W-72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO AS DEPICTED BY RADAR. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. EXPECT... THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N69W 28N74W 30N79W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 76W-79W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 68W-71W. A DOMINATE 1037 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AZORES NEAR 45N29W. A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR IS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 15N AND E OF 45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA