000 AXNT20 KNHC 020552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N40W TO 8N35W WITH A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 11N36W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGH AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NW OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 37W-40W. THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED...HOWEVER SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. NONETHELESS...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N58W TO 7N56W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE WAS OBSERVED ON THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS NOT DISCERNIBLE ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 12N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT WITH A 1007 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE AND JUST TO THE W OF AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WAVE IS ALSO AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-12N W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W S OF 21N ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE LIES JUST TO THE W OF AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 26N. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN THE GULF. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N16W 9N24W 8N30W 9N36W 7N41W 9N54W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 27W-28W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 25W-29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 125 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA TO 24W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 7N27W TO 4N38W AND WITHIN 120 NM N AND 75 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 38W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER E OKLAHOMA EXTENDING AN AXIS SE INTO THE NE GULF 30N87W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS/CUBA NEAR 22N80W WITH A SECOND WEAKER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SSW OVER GALVESTON TEXAS TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES EXTENDING FROM S MEXICO NEAR 18N92W TO NEAR 26N91W. THIS INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N88W TO 23N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER S GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE NE GULF TO 25N BETWEEN 83W-87W. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN NAPLES AND CRYSTAL RIVER. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS OF S MEXICO BETWEEN 92W-95W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS MOVING ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA NEAR 20N77W WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN AND INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM W PANAMA ACROSS JAMAICA AND JUST TO THE S OF THE UPPER LOW OVER S CUBA. THIS IS GIVING THE AREA S OF 17N W OF 73W CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 17N BETWEEN 76W-84W. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES GIVING THE SE CARIBBEAN ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 14N E OF 66W ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 70W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE REGION FROM A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 32N71W ALONG 29N73W 29N77W THEN NW TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 75W-80W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN N OF 20N E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AZORES AND RATHER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THIS IS MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW