000 AXNT20 KNHC 011753 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN AUG 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 22N36W TO 15N35W TO 10N34W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM 05N TO 18N BETWEEN 26W AND 39W. NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 09N35W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SLOW ORGANIZATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION. A SMALL EAST TO WEST RIBBON OF LOW DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR VALUES AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ENCOMPASS THE SYSTEM FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W TO 40W. THIS WILL RESULT IN FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 39W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 18N57W TO 10N55W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE AXIS COINCIDES WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 19N78W TO 11N81W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 83W. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS AND IS ANALYZED AS A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 10N81W. THE WAVE ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 09N TO 17N BETWEEN 74W AND 85W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 21N91W TO 14N90W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS LOW TO MID-LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO A TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE THIS AFTERNOON. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N16W 11N33W 09N37W 11N54W 09N67W THEN INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA TO 11N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 19W-30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 40W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR 27N81W. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 28N. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N95W AND IS PROVIDING THE GULF W OF 93W WITH OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES AS A 1013 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N95W. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH NE OVER LOUISIANA AND TO THE SW OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL MEXICO. HOWEVER...BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO NEAR 28N90W AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF ALONG 30N84W TO 27N88W TO 23N91W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 30N84W TO 25N92W. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NE FLOW COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO COSTA RICA. THIS IS PROVIDING A RELATIVELY DRY AND SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERE WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 85W-89W. FARTHER TO THE SE... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 17N BETWEEN 74W AND 85W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 74W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL W ATLC NEAR 18N55W. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND LOW-LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC WITH THE BASE DIPPING TO 33N BETWEEN 64W-82W. SOUTH OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 28N TO 65W. NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N71W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SW ALONG 29N76W TO 30N79W AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N81W. A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND FIELD SURROUNDS THE FRONT AND AREAS SOUTH TO 25N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT FROM 26N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 73W-80W. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 46N31W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH ALONG 32N54W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 22N72W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN