000 AXNT20 KNHC 011103 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN AUG 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT OR LESS. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W...FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N54W 12N57W 5N58W IN GUYANA MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE 22N44W 11N54W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS PART OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION ALSO. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W FROM JAMAICA SOUTHWARD...MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE PRECIPITATION THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER IS PROBABLY MOSTLY RELATED TO THE TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE STRONG PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO THAT WAS IN EL SALVADOR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF GUATEMALA HAS DISSIPATED/WEAKENED. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE MAURITANIA COAST NEAR 18N16W TO 10N27W 9N33W 9N50W TO 10N57W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W. MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 18W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 96W AND 107W...MOSTLY ON TOP OF MEXICO AND A LITTLE BIT IN THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER MEXICO FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 103W AND 109W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N88W. SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE TROUGH THAT SPANS THE AREA FROM 22N70W IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS THAT ARE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO HAITI...TO A 14N77W CYCLONIC CENTER...TOWARD THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 73W AND THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W FROM JAMAICA SOUTHWARD...MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. EARLIER PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N65W TO 30N67W TO 26N76W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N71W TO 28N76W AND BEYOND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N75W 29N70W BEYOND BERMUDA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN BERMUDA FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000 UTC WAS 1.36 INCHES. ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 28N57W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N60W TO 19N62W JUST OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 27W AND 45W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 22N44W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 11N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. BOTH TROUGHS ARE SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE FROM 15N TO 30N BETWEEN 37W AND 64W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT