000 AXNT20 KNHC 311755 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 20N27W TO 15N24W TO 09N20W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGH VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM 07N TO 27N E OF 31W. WHILE AMPLE MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THE LOW-LEVELS...BELOW 850 MB...A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION N OF 13N IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W AND IS MORE LIKELY THE RESULT OF PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 19N51W TO 13N50W TO 08N46W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE AXIS COINCIDES WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. EARLIER ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES CAPTURED NON-RAINED FLAGGED NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W...MAINLY N OF THE CONVECTIVE AREA. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 18N70W TO 10N74W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 67W AND 75W. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH MINIMAL CONVERGENCE GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 21N86W TO 11N81W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. LOW TO MID-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO A TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 15N17W 08N33W 10N45W 08N60W 11N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 06N TO 12N ALONG 34W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING A LARGE AREA FROM 03N TO 12N BETWEEN 24W AND 44W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 45W AND 53W. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS APPROACHES FROM THE EAST...THAT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS E-SE TO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 26N. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N86W AND IS PROVIDING THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO THE GULF ALONG 30N84W TO 24N88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH DUE TO THE EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND ARE LOCATED FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND 91W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 95W WITH A 1014 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N95W AND A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER INTERIOR EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N98W KEEPING SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF 91W. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 74W ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N85W. THIS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 85W AND FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 78W-83W. FARTHER TO THE SE... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 86W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 09N IN THE EAST PACIFIC REGION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND IS PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS. E-SE CONVERGENT TRADEWINDS EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS ARE PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 16N. OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN...THE 31/1200 UTC SOUNDINGS FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A SAHARAN AIR LAYER ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM 850 MB TO 600 MB...RESULTING IN STABLE AIR AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPPING TO 31N66W. THIS TROUGH IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND SUPPORTS A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N67W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE LOW ALONG 30N75W TO THE COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR BRUNSWICK. AN AREA OF CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WINDS IS ALSO LOCATED SOUTH OF THE FRONT DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE LOW TO 27N78W NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED N OF 26N BETWEEN 65W-79W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 30N TO 70W. THIS IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN SUPPORT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 46N31W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH ALONG 32N53W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 22N71W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN