000 AXNT20 KNHC 311101 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N19W 11N21W 6N22W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND 24W...AND FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W. THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT WAS NEAR 10N34W SIX HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 34W/35W FROM 7N TO 13N. ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT JUST IS RELATED TO THIS TROPICAL WAVE UNDOUBTEDLY IS MIXED WITH THE ITCZ SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 43W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N49W 12N50W 7N50W MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N30W TO 23N38W TO A 17N38W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 11N43W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CROSSING PUERTO RICO FROM 19N67W TO 15N68W TO VENEZUELA NEAR 9N69W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE VENEZUELA COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 68W AND 69W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS BETWEEN 71W AND 75W IS PROBABLY MORE RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THERE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 17.5N82W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST...FROM HONDURAS AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO 19N BETWEEN 83W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE SENEGAL COAST NEAR 15N17W TO 9N27W 10N34W 9N42W 10N44W AND 9N60W AT THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 43W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA/THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. THIS UPPER LEVEL SITUATION IS ON TOP OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT CURVES FROM THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THEN WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. WARM CLOUD-TOP SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. STRONG SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE RIGHT AT THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND AT THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 23N68W...CROSSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA...AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N76W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 10.5N IN COLOMBIA BETWEEN 74W AND 80W AT THE COAST OF PANAMA...AND IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA ON THE WESTERN BORDER OF LAKE MARACAIBO. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MEXICO THAT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...JUST BARELY TOUCHING THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF GUATEMALA...TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. EARLIER PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA HAS ENDED FOR THE MOMENT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W...FROM BERMUDA TOWARD SAINT LUCIA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 28N72W TO THE NORTHERNMOST BAHAMAS. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY IS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF 32N AND OUT OF THE AREA FOR THIS WRITTEN BULLETIN. A SURFACE TROUGH AT 31/0900 UTC GOES FROM 32N69W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 25N79W. A RAINFALL OBSERVATION OF 1.46 INCHES WAS REPORTED IN BERMUDA AT 31/0000 UTC. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 28N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 29N70W TO 30N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N56W TO 27N57W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N59W TO 17N61W JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN ISLANDS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 56W AND 57W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A 34N35W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 29N38W TO 27N42W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N30W TO 23N38W TO A 17N38W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 11N43W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT