000 AXNT20 KNHC 301152 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUL 30 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 18N21W TO 8N19W MOVING W NEAR 12KT. THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A MOISTURE SURGE NOTED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 17W-25W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 14N32W TO 4N32W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS NEAR A 1010 MB LOW CENTER ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N. THE WAVE LIES EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 302-32W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 17N60W TO 8N65W MOVING W 20-25 KT. THE WAVE LIES W OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 56W-61W...AND FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 62W-66W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 19N80W TO 9N76W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERING THE CENTRAL/W CARIBBEAN EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 75W-79W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 81W-85W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 75W-80W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 10N30W 12N47W 13N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 36W-39W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS...350 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 35W-49W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 49W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ERN TEXAS TO THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N W OF 93W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE NW COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG 31N83W TO 26N84W ENHANCING CLOUDINESS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 82W-88W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N93W MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SW SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER THE NW AREA AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE RIDING ACROSS THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS NRN SOUTH AMERICA IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE SW GULF AND BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE JUST W OF JAMAICA. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMPACTING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND SE CARIBBEAN WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WRN AND ERN CARIBBEAN AS THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES PROGRESS WWD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 35N72W TO 30N79W ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 66W-79W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS TO THE N MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC. ALOFT...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N55W TO E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N57W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH IS MOST LIKELY ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED TO THE E NEAR 24N40W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS E ALONG 35W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR E ATLC CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON