000 AXNT20 KNHC 291753 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUL 28 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA LOCATED FROM 16N19W TO 9N15W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE DAKAR SENEGAL UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATED THE WAVE RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH AT THE LOWER LEVELS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 10N-14N WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE SW PENINSULA OF SENEGAL. TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 16N51W TO 6N57W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS TILTED N-NE/S-SW AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ THAT SHIFTS N NEAR 50W. DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...THE WAVE AXIS IS NOT EASILY RECOGNIZABLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS TO THE W OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND COUPLED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N18W 9N25W 8N37W 12N46W 13N52W 10N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 29W/30W FROM 6N-11N GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 7N29W 6N32W TO 11N34W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 55W-63W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 9N36W TO 7N45W AND FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 45W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER HIGH IS INLAND OVER MEXICO WITH THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE W GULF W OF 94W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 94W-96W TO JUST INLAND OVER THE TEXAS COAST. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED ALONG THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA COVERING THE NE GULF N OF 24N TO 90W WITH AN UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING OVER THE FAR CLIPPING THE S GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MELBOURNE INTO THE GULF NEAR NAPLES. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 23N85W TO THE FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN TAMPA AND FORT MYERS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE N GULF WITH A 1023 MB HIGH INLAND OVER SW LOUISIANA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LOW IS THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W COVERS THE AREA W OF 80W AND INTO THE S GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-22N W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHICH IS N OF AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY COVERS A BROADER AREA FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 75W-80W AND FROM 13N-17N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 75W AND MOST OF THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 66W-72W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N66W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1018 MB LOW NEAR 33N60W ACROSS BERMUDA TO 32N73W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-33N BETWEEN 60W-78W. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 32N46W ALONG 26N65W TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 27N78W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS YET ANOTHER DRY SAHARAN AIR MASS SURGING INTO THE FAR E ATLC AND REMAINING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW