000 AXNT20 KNHC 290604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUL 29 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 18N43W 12N50W 5N57W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES EMBEDDED IN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 47W-57W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 53W-56W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM ERN PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N66W TO INLAND VENEZUELA NEAR 8N68W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 64W-68W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 65W-67W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 9N29W 11N47W 8N61W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 12W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 11W-18W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 27W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE NW COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG 30N84W TO 26N83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A SECOND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PARALLELS THE SE MEXICAN COASTLINE ALONG 22N98W TO 17N93W IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTLINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH S OF SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERING THE ERN GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT WWD SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE RIDING ACROSS THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS NRN SOUTH AMERICA IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOW CENTERED OVER NE NICARAGUA IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA. DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 80W-84W. A CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED OFF THE NRN COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE SRN COAST OF CUBA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 64W-68W AS WELL AS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. ELSEWHERE ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N61W. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE E/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE PROGRESSES WWD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 31N45W IS MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NRN BORDER ALONG 32N59W 31N68W 32N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 59W-68W. ELSEWHERE ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC CENTERED JUST E OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N80W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N52W TO N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N61W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS E ALONG 17N45W TO 5N50W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE CENTRAL/E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 22N37W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING FROM 21N23W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON