000 AXNT20 KNHC 281743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUL 28 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 16N40W TO 8N46W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC LOW/MID FLOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WELL W OF THE WAVE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 15N44W TO 12N50W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS FROM 17N63W TO 10N65W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS WEAK BUT HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND THUS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 61W-66W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N15W 7N30W 8N43W THEN RESUMES NEAR 13N48W 10N55W 10N62W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N E OF 17N TO JUST INLAND OVER GUINEA AFRICA. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 11N20W TO 7N26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 35W-40W...FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W-41W...AND WITHIN 75 NM OF 7N FROM 51W-59W INCLUDING A PORTION OF THE COAST OF GUYANA SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE N GULF NEAR 28N88W COVERING MOST OF THE GULF MAINLY N OF 22N BETWEEN 85W-94W. THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC AND A SECOND INLAND OVER MEXICO...BOTH CLIPPING THE FAR E AND W GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO FROM NEAR RIO BRAVO JUST OFFSHORE NEAR TAMPICO TO OVER VERACRUZ GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60/90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND TEXAS FROM VERACRUZ TO JUST S OF GALVESTON. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH A 1022 MB HIGH INLAND OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LOW COVERS THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN CENTERED ALONG 17N75W TO 13N83W COVERING THE AREA W OF 72W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS SAME AREA IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MODERATELY DRY AIR THUS...ONLY SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA S OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-84W WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS S OF 13N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND NICARAGUA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE ITCZ THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 72W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE W ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 33N60W ALONG 31N67W THEN NW TO A WEAK 1018 MB LOW NEAR WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 59W-69W AND N OF 30N BETWEEN 76W-79W. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30N42W ALONG 27N62W TO A 1020 MB HIGH NE OF THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 27N76W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY SAHARAN AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW