000 AXNT20 KNHC 280003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUL 27 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 17N31W TO 12N37W TO 5N41W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THERE IS A NORTHERN VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH SOME CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 38W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N55W TO 15N59W TO 10N61W MOVING W 15-20 KT. MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY E OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 15N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 56W-61W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 10N20W THEN RESUMES NEAR 15N33W 9N45W 10N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 17W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 28W-30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 50W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO TO INCLUDE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 24N96W TO 16N93W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-30N BETWEEN 93W-97W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS HOWEVER ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 81W-82W MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 33N100W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF. EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF TO ALSO DRIFT W TO TEXAS AND MEXICO E OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 30 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM HONDURAS TO PANAMA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 77W-87W...AND FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 83W-86W. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N87W. A LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS S OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N77W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1020 MB HIGH IS E OF FLORIDA NEAR 27N75W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS DRIFTING S OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N60W 31N70W TO SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N38W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SAHARAN AIR ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC E OF 55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA