000 AXNT20 KNHC 261749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUL 26 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N25W TO 11N27W MOVING W 10-15 KT. UPON ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST MODEL RUN AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IT IS DETERMINED THERE IS A NORTHERN VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR 17N27W AND A WEAKER SOUTHERN VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR 8N31W. THEREFORE...THE WAVE WILL BE RELOCATED AT 26/1800 UTC TO REFLECT THE THAT POSITION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 45W/46W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A WIND SURGE AND UPON ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST MODEL RUN AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IT IS DETERMINED THAT THE WAVE AXIS IS WEAK AND FURTHER TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...THE WAVE WILL BE RELOCATED AT 26/1800 UTC TO REFLECT THE THAT POSITION. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 15N17W 12N22W THEN RESUMES NEAR 11N29W 8N41W 10N52W 8N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 8N30W TO 10N40W AND WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 7N51W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER N TEXAS EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NW GULF ALONG 29N95W TO 26N94W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N W OF 91W TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA/TEXAS AND TO THE COAST OF NE MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDING FROM 29N87W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N87W TO 22N85W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N85W TO 23N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 125 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO ALONG 23N100W INTO THE SW GULF TO NEAR 20N91W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST S OF 23N W OF 95W. AN UPPER RIDGE AND UPPER TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM W CUBA TO THE E YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 84W-89W. THIS SCENARIO IS KEEPING THE GULF RATHER ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA NEAR 11N77W TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N81W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE E. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NE YUCATAN NEAR 21N88W OVER BELIZE...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N77W ALONG 15N62W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 21N84W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN/CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SAHARAN AIR THUS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN.A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES AND A 1022 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 27N70W WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN ALONG 31N54W TO 27N60W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SAHARAN AIR ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW