000
AXNT20 KNHC 261043
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 AM EDT MON JUL 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. WELL 
DEFINED LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDS THE WAVE AXIS 
EVIDENT IN BOTH SATELLITE DATA AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE 
WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS FOUND 
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SAHARAN AIR LAYER SUPPRESSING 
ANY DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 19N MOVING WEST 5 TO 10 KT. 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC 
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD 
OF A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER IMAGERY. ALSO...THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH A REGION OF  
VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE...NO DEEP CONVECTION 
ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE. 

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST OF THE 
GAMBIA NEAR 13N16W...WESTWARD ALONG 12N20W 10N30W 8N40W 9N50W 
8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 24W TO 40W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS FROM 48W TO 60W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF EAST OF 90W INCLUDING THE 
FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW 
AROUND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING NEAR 26N85W. 
THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CONVECTION AND 
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE 
TO LINGER ALONG THE WEST AND NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST TO 70 NM 
OFFSHORE...FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO... 
ENHANCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EMBRACES THE COAST OF 
MEXICO...FROM MATAMOROS TO VERACRUZ...AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT 
FROM A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN 
OKLAHOMA. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WEST OF 77W CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE 
OF MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS AS INDICATED BY COMPUTER GENERATED 500 
MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND 
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THIS REGION. COMPUTER MODELS 
INDICATE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD OUT OF THE 
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION 
LINGERING OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE PACIFIC ITCZ 
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COUNTRIES OF COSTA RICA 
AND PANAMA. ABUNDANT SAHARAN DUST AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS 
NOTED ELSEWHERE EAST OF 80W...PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...EAST OF 77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. SURFACE 
RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB 
HIGH CIRCULATING OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 28N72W AND A BROAD 
1028 MB HIGH NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N27W PROVIDING FAIR 
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA