000 AXNT20 KNHC 251213 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUL 25 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 15N36W 11N36W 6N39W MOVING WEST ABOUT 5 KT. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS FOUND WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE WAVE AXIS AND SURROUNDINGS OF IT. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 70W S OF 20N MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT SAHARAN DUST AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE SUPPRESSING IT FROM PRODUCING ANY CONVECTION. WIND PROFILE DATA FROM DAKAR SENEGAL CLEARLY INDICATES LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION AROUND THE NORTHERN EXTENTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA. THIS WAVE WILL BE EMERGING INTO THE ATLANTIC AREA OF DISCUSSION WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...WESTWARD ALONG 9N20W 5N30W 6N40W 6N50W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 30W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF BONNIE IS NOW INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF LOUISIANA. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...BANDS OF SCATTERED GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE SW GULF W OF 94W FROM 20N TO 25N...ENHANCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW CENTER ANALYZED INLAND OVER MEXICO. THIS AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS FROM THE SAME SYSTEM. THE CONTINUATION OF RAINFALL ACROSS THESE AREAS INCREASES THE THREAT OF FLOODING AND POTENTIAL MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGH SATURATED TERRAIN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS E OF 84W FROM A VIGOROUS AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CUBA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MARINE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SHOW ESE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. A VIGOROUS BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N81W...AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 80W ARE INTERACTING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICK INTO THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY LINGER OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION S OF 17N W OF 77W THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ABUNDANT SAHARAN DUST AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING THIS WAVE FROM PRODUCING ANY CONVECTION AND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC...WEST OF THE BAHAMAS...SOUTH OF 26N WEST OF 76W...ENHANCED BY A VIGOROUS BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N81W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NW INTO THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CIRCULATING OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 27N65W AND A BROAD 1031 MB HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N24W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA