000
AXNT20 KNHC 250549
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 15N36W 11N36W 6N39W MOVING WEST 
ABOUT 5 KT. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE WEAK LOW-LEVEL 
CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE 
WAVE. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE 
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE 
IS FOUND WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER SUPPRESSING 
ANY DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE WAVE AXIS AND SURROUNDINGS OF IT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 70W S OF 
20N MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN 
AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT SAHARAN DUST AND 
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE SUPPRESSING 
IT FROM PRODUCING ANY CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST OF 
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...WESTWARD ALONG 9N20W 5N30W 6N40W 
6N50W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 140 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 30W. SCATTERED 
WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ WEST 
OF 30W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF BONNIE IS NOW INLAND OVER 
LOUISIANA NEAR THE COASTAL CITY OF BOOTHVILLE. ALTHOUGH MOST OF 
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER 
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...BANDS OF SCATTERED GUSTY SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST N OF 
27N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE SW GULF W OF 94W FROM 20N TO 
25N...ENHANCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED INLAND OVER MEXICO. 
WELL DEFINED SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS IS 
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS 
ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER THE FAR EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE FLORIDA 
STRAITS E OF 83W FROM A STRONG BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY 
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CUBA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD 
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CUBA 
NEAR 22N80W...AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 80W ARE 
INTERACTING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W 
OF 77W. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE 
FAIRLY QUICK INTO THE EASTERN GULF...WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH 
MAY LINGER OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION S OF 17N W OF 
77W THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ABUNDANT SAHARAN DUST AND 
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING THIS WAVE FROM PRODUCING ANY 
CONVECTION AND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FAR WESTERN 
ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 26N WEST OF 75W...ENHANCED BY A STRONG BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W. 
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD OVER 
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NW INTO THE FAR 
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...SURFACE 
RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1024 
MB HIGH CIRCULATING OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 27N65W AND A 
BROAD 1031 MB HIGH NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N26W PROVIDING 
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA