000 AXNT20 KNHC 250014 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010 CORRECTION FOR THE DATE/TIME AND THE DISTANCES OF THE REMNANT LOW OF BONNIE TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE HAS DEGENERATED INTO A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW OF BONNIE AT 25/0000 UTC IS NEAR 28.6N 88.3W...OR ABOUT 56 NM/65 MILES/105 KM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE REMNANT LOW OF BONNIE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE REMNANT LOW OF BONNIE SHOWS UP WELL ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE COVERING THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AT 24/1615 UTC HAVE WARMED WITH TIME...AND WHATEVER REMAINS OF THAT CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTHWESTWARD TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST/IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM 26N TO 30N. A SEPARATE AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS IS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 29N88W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 89W AND THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER IS MOVING NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS NEAR 30N96W. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N32W TO 12N37W TO 8N39W...MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KT. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 20N63W...ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO 16N66W AND 11N67W...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 19N70W IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO THE NORTHERN SHORES OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN CENTRAL PUERTO RICO AND THE EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE GUINEA/SIERRA LEONE BORDER NEAR 10N ALONG 12W... TO 9N20W 9N34W 8N50W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W...TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 39W AND 54W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 59W AND 60W...AND IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 62W AND 63W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF BONNIE DOMINATES MOST OF THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 89W AND THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER IS MOVING NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS NEAR 30N96W. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 23 TO THE WEST OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W. CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER CUBA FROM EAST TO WEST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 60W... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N77W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 22N77W CENTER TO 15N80W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W. CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER CUBA FROM EAST TO WEST..AND FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING EASTERN CUBA TO 19N77W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W...TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE 22N77W 15N80W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A LINE FROM EASTERN HONDURAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL NICARAGUA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS... ACROSS EL SALVADOR...INTO SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA AND EVENTUALLY MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W. ALL THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 24N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 65W...POSSIBLY CONNECTED TO THE 24N67W-PUERTO RICO TROUGH. THESE TROUGHS/AREAS OF CYCLONIC FLOW ARE TO THE EAST AND/OR SLIGHTLY ON TOP OF THE 20N63W 11N67W TROPICAL WAVE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N29W TO 27N39W TO 19N48W TO 12N56W. THIS TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 60W AND NORTHWARD BEYOND 30N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 33N47W 28N50W WITH NO NEARBY DISCERNIBLE PRECIPITATION. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N32W TO 29N40W TO 28N45W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 56W AND 80W...AROUND A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N67W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT