000 AXNT20 KNHC 231754 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM BONNIE MADE LANDFALL IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FLORIDA NEAR CUTLER BAY AROUND 1500 UTC. AS OF 1800 UTC...BONNIE IS CENTERED NEAR 25.8N 81.1W MOVING WNW NEAR 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS IT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 80W-84W AFFECTING MUCH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF SW FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 78W-80W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TILTED TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 17N30W 12N32W 6N37W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS IN THIS TILTED MANNER. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ALSO ENCOMPASSING THE WAVE SUPPRESSING MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 54W/55W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE WWD ALONGSIDE A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALSO SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 50W-54W...AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 55W-60W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 13N29W 7N45W 9N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 15W-19W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 41W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. THE CENTER OF BONNIE IS CURRENTLY INLAND OVER THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SHOULD ENTER THE ERN GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AS OF 1500 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE NE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 31N85W TO 28N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 28N-29N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE SWRN GULF SW OF A LINE FROM 28N97W NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS MOVED INLAND OVER COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 21N98W. THE AREA IS ALSO UNDER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N89W AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA UP CENTRAL MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ALSO NE OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE W ATLC AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DRY AIR IS BEING WRAPPED AROUND THE UPPER LOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE ERN GULF WATERS AS TROPICAL STORM BONNIE MOVES WNW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ISLAND OVER NRN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 13N-19N W OF 86W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N67W PROVIDING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W-75W IMPACTING PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THESE LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM BONNIE. THE CONTINUATION OF RAINFALL ACROSS THESE AREAS INCREASES THE THREAT OF FLOODING AND POTENTIAL MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO FORMED OVER ERN CUBA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 75W-78W. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NE AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SW TOWARDS THE SE BAHAMAS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM BONNIE IS NOW INLAND OVER THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA W OF 78W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE W ATLC KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR 23N67W IS ENHANCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W-70W. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 41N23W PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N53W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 35N39W. A SECOND ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEAR 36N16W TO 17N44W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON