000 AXNT20 KNHC 230547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM BONNIE IS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 76.5W AS OF FEB 23 AT 0300 UTC. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF NASSAU OR ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NW AT 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N86W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THIS SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 75W-78W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 17N26W TO 7N31W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS ALSO SURROUNDED BY A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALSO SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. A THICK AREA OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS E OF 50W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 16N27W 8N33W 7N40W 9N49W 7N55W 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 33W-36W...AND FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 36W-39W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 40W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1008 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO AT 21N98W MOVING W TOWARDS THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 96W-99W. FURTHER E...A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 30N86W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N86W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 89W-94W. EXPECT BONNIE TO APPROACH S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITHIN 24 HOURS WITH WINDS AND CONVECTION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA RESULTING IN 5-15 KT WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 86W-90W. FURTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 68W-77W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 26N62W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF THE CENTER OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 65W-67W. EXPECT...THE CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE W TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM BONNIE IS THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING HEAVY CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 40N25W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N58W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION N OF PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA