000 AXNT20 KNHC 221759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAS FORMED N OF ERN CUBA CENTERED NEAR 22.3N 74.9W...AS OF 1800 UTC...MOVING WNW NEAR 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE SYSTEM IS SHEARED WITH MOST OF THE THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NE OF THE CENTER AFFECTING THE SE BAHAMAS. OUTER RAINBANDS ARE ALSO STILL IMPACTING PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ERN HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 66W-71W...AND FROM 12N-25N BETWEEN 71W-75W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21N95W. SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE WRN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WRN GULF AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 94W-99W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 92W-99W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND IT IS UNLIKELY ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. ...TROPICAL WAVES... LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 26W-28W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 20N47W TO 2N43W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FARTHER N FROM THE AXIS ALONG 30N51W TO 22N50W. THE WAVE AND TROUGH FOLLOW AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALSO SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE LOST MUCH OF ITS ENERGY TO THE SYSTEM THAT IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 78W-81W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 12N26W 8N35W 8N53W 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 33W-39W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 49W-56W...AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 57W-63W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1008 MB LOW IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 94W-99W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 92W-99W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER SE TEXAS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 93W-95W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IN UNDER SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SE CONUS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER WRN CUBA IS ALSO HELPING TO MAINTAIN THIS FAIR WEATHER. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE OTHER THE SW GULF IS MAINTAINING WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE BASIN AS WELL AS THE SERN AREA AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE APPROACHES THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 78W-81W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO OVER BELIZE AND THE SURROUNDING AREAS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 87W-90W. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE EXTENDS INTO THE NERN CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH SOME OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMPACTING PUERTO RICO AND ERN HISPANIOLA N OF 15 N BETWEEN 65W-70W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO AFFECTING FAR ERN CUBA. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER WRN CUBA NEAR 23N80W WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NE CARIBBEAN AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE MOVES WNW THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE WRN ATLC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. FARTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 30N51W TO 22N50W...A CUT OFF EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 36N38W PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BARELY DIPS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA JUST N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORMING NEAR 27N61W WITH UPPER RIDGING TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 28N47W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING BETWEEN THE AZORES ISLANDS AND THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 18N38W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON