000 AXNT20 KNHC 220549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 24N71W 18N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 67W-74W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 67W-75W. DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET INDICATE THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N93W TO THE LOW CENTER TO S MEXICO AT 18N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 93W-95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN92W-97W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW BEFORE IT REACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED ON THE ITCZ ALONG 26W S OF 14N MOVING W AT 15 KT. DISTINCT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 27W-32W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 17N40W TO 3N36W MOVING W 15-20 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEPICTS A NORTHERN SURGE OF LOW CLOUDS...THAT YESTERDAY WAS PART OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...IS FURTHER N FROM 28N47W TO 19N43W. A NARROW NORTH TO SOUTH AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PRESENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF BOTH FEATURES. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA ALONG 79W MOVING W NEAR AT 15 KT. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 71W-76W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 8N30W 7N40W 7N50W 10N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 52W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A LOW AND TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. 20 KT E SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 25N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 27N99W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SW GULF LOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION ...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 85W-88W. FURTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 60W-67W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 67W-74W DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N38W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE S BAHAMA SURFACE TROUGH. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N57W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION N OF PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA