000 AXNT20 KNHC 211041 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N65W TO 16N67W. STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 65W-70W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 23N40W TO 15N38W 6N33W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-24N BETWEEN 35W-44W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM E CUBA TO N COLOMBIA ALONG 76W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER COLOMBIA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 73W-78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO E OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER HAITI FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 70W-75W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND S MEXICO ALONG 92/93W S OF 27N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE LIES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW W OF THE WAVE AXIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 93W-97W...AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 88W-93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 86W-89W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N20W 11N36W 7N42W 8N55W 11N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 26W-32W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 32W-40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR TRINIDAD FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 60W-63W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SEE ABOVE. SURFACE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY 10-15 KT OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 25N96W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E AND S OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. EXPECT...MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROPICAL WAVES MOVE W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FURTHER E...AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION ...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 82W-87W. FURTHER E...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 60W-64W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N62W. EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVE AND AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 65W-70W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N58W. ANOTHER 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N37W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 25N71W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N53W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION N OF PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA