000 AXNT20 KNHC 210547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N65W TO 16N67W. STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 60W-68W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 25N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEAR LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS WITH AN INVERTED-V STRUCTURE. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 33W-43W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA ALONG 75W/76W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 72W-75W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 90W S OF 26N TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE LIES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER S MEXICO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 84W-94W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N20W 12N34W 8N45W 11N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 22W-28W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 28W-33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 40W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION HAS ADVECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MEXICO S OF TAMPICO DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE THAT REACHED THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. FURTHER E...A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 90W S OF 26N. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N95W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E AND S OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROPICAL WAVES MOVE W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FURTHER E...AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION ...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 82W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W. EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE SPECIAL FEATURE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN BETWEEN 63W-68W. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N36W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 25N71W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N49W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION N OF PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA