000 AXNT20 KNHC 201050 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W...AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 26N68W MOVING SW. RECENT UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W S OF 22N MOVING W 20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS CONFIRMED BY EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA AS WELL AS SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 34W-38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 71W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 70W-71W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 65W-68W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W S OF 24N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. WAVE LIES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 81W-83W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO NICARAGUA FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 80W-86W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH MEXICO ALONG 93W S OF 26N MOVING W NEAR NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE GULF AS EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO SPINNING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 24N92W PROVIDING AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER S MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 90W-96W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 15N32W 8N37W 9N50W 10N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 10W-19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 51W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH MEXICO. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE SE GULF. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W FLORIDA FROM 27N-28N BETWEEN 84W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N92W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E AND S OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROPICAL WAVES MOVE W. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION ...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 59W-62W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 19N59W. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. ALSO SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN BETWEEN 55W-59W. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N57W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ANOTHER 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N31W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... BESIDES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF HISPANIOLA ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N42W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION N OF PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA