000 AXNT20 KNHC 200525 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 22N MOVING W 20-25 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEAR LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS CONFIRMED BY EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA AS WELL AS SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 32W-36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EAST/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 69W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE AXIS AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO LIES UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAT IS ENHANCING A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION E OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF PUERTO RICO FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 65W-67W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 70W-72W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W S OF 24N FROM WESTERN CUBA TO EAST CENTRAL NICARAGUA NEAR MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. WAVE LIES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-23N BETWEEN 76W-80W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 83W-87W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 27N89W TO GUATEMALA NEAR 15N92W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ERN GULF EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N91W PROVIDING AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER S MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 90W-95W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 17N32W 10N35W 7N40W 9N50W 9N69W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 12W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 20W-22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS S OF W CUBA. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W FLORIDA FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 82W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N91W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E AND S OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROPICAL WAVES MOVE W. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. SEE ABOVE. ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 59W-64W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 27N68W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS S OF 23N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N55W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ANOTHER 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N29W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BESIDES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF PUERTO RICO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N42W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION N OF PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA